We surveyed 210 professionals from across Europe, with a particular focus on the UK and Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Benelux and the Nordic region. They work across the industry, including borrowers, advisers, primary and secondary debt fund management professionals and, private equity managers using private credit.
Alternative Views – Annual Private Credit Survey Report 2025
Momentum in private credit is strong, and growth is expected
Credit professionals began the second quarter of 2025 in an optimistic spirit, despite it being clear the US was about to impose a severe tariff regime. Momentum helps explain the positive sentiment - deal volumes are up 8.5% over the last 18 months and respondents were nearly unanimous (95%) in their expectation of further growth. When compared to the last three years, they expected volume growth of 5.8% this year. Compared to last year, they are more positive still – and borrowers were more bullish than lenders, though debt advisers showed greater caution. There were also some notable regional differences, with greater optimism in the UK and Ireland and greater caution in Germany and France.
We were surprised by how sanguine the industry remained in the face of disruption to the global economy and capital markets caused by US policy announcements throughout April. At the beginning of the month – just before “Liberation Day” the weighted average expected growth this year compared to last year was 11.0%. This only dropped to 9.9% when we asked the question again a few weeks later.
The manifold effects of April’s trade conniptions are ricocheting around financial markets at breakneck speed. There is no point trying to predict what the US will do next, other than to note that Washington blinked the moment the bond markets stirred. That powerful discipline may yet lead to a restoration of sanity, in which case private credit’s optimism will prove well founded. If, instead, the US and China drag the world into a recession then the industry’s focus will change.
- Momentum in private credit is strong – deal volumes are up 8.5% over the last 18 months and expectations are for further growth
- 82% expect higher defaults and increased uncertainty means higher risk aversion - 47% feel terms favour lenders at present
- Regulation is a pain point – 56% of industry participants want better regulation, but 79% expect more of it instead
- 83% see the role of loan agents growing though clients want better transparency
“Private credit funds have established themselves as a permanent and increasingly vital part of the European corporate financing landscape, offering tailored solutions and certainty of funding.”